Tagged: fantasy

April 9, 2009

Expert League Update – Do As I Say, Not As I Do

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pluto nash.jpg

Yesterday, I was asked a question about what advice I
have for newbies. One of my tips was
“never chase wins” and today, I bring you direct evidence of why doing so is a
really bad idea. Like greenlighting “The
Adventures of Pluto Nash” bad. (If Eddie
Murphy is funny on earth, he must be twice as funny on the moon! Comedy is affected by gravity, right? Let’s spend $100 million to find out!)

In the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League, which features
a 5X5 H2H format with daily roster moves, I began the week with a plan. Since Peavy, Myers, and Harang would all take
the ball twice over the season’s first seven days, I would combine those six
starts with one apiece from Joba and Burnett to give me eight quality options
for the week. Since all five guys
feature excellent strikeout potential, employing this strategy should give me a
chance to sweep all four starting pitching categories. But of course, limiting your starts increases
your vulnerability if one guys blows up, as you won’t
accumulate enough innings to counteract a poor effort.

If you’ve been following baseball or this blog or are just a
really sharp reader, I’m sure you can see where this is going. Myers takes the hill to open the season on
Sunday and is greeted with an old-fashioned shellacking. Just like that, I’m faced with a choice — stick with the plan (the sensible, non-reactionary thing to do) or panic!!!!!

Of course, I do the latter and freak out faster than Christian Bale (Myers and I may be done professionally). This leads to me basically conceding the WHIP
and ERA category an hour into the matchup and deciding I’m going to run every one of my pitchers out there in an
effort to win Ks and wins for the week.
Whoops. Here are the outings that
followed:

Aaron Cook – 2.1 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 2 Ks, 1 BB, 23.14 ERA, 3.48
WHIP

Scott Olsen – 3.0 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 2 Ks, 3 BB, 24.00 ERA, 3.67
WHIP

Ian Snell – 4.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 2 Ks, 3 BB, 13.50 ERA, 3.00
WHIP

Trevor Cahill – 5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 K, 5 BB, 3.60 ERA, 2.00
WHIP

So what did I get for my effort? Seven strikeouts and zero
wins. I would rather have watched “A
Chorus Line” than seen these pitching lines.
Heck, I would have rather been in
a local production of “A Chorus Line” if that’s what it took.

So this brings me back to the original point — don’t chase
wins. The strategy rarely works and
frequently backfires.

Ironically, my
opponent has seen his starting pitching staff implode as well, so if I’d just
kept my cool I’d be on the other side of this beatdown. Instead, I’m losing 3-6-1 and will probably
end up in a hole of my own digging.
Learn from me (or laugh at me, I deserve it).

April 8, 2009

Mailbag – Tips for Beginners

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Hello everyone

Each Wednesday, I’m going to answer a question from the
comments or my email, so if you have a question (about fantasy baseball or
anything else), let it fly in the comment section below. Here is this week’s question.

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Toby–starting at square
1, what information that you learned last year did you find to be most
important or most helpful in attempting to analyze/predict a player’s fantasy
worth? I used to be a baseball fan, then lived under a rock for 10 years, and
am trying to rekindle the interest.

Jonas Foxx

Hey Jonas

Welcome back to civilization! I haven’t lived in the same home for more
than 18 months since I left for college, must have been nice to have that kind
of stability. Do you miss your
rock?

Glad to see you’ve chosen to get back into baseball. The players look a little……..different now
than when you went into seclusion don’t be alarmed. You’ll be surprised at how fast you get back
into it, especially if you were a big baseball fan as a kid. Something about the game seems to nest itself
in your soul when you are young and never really goes away. It just lays dormant until activated, and as I
can attest, fantasy baseball is a heckuva catalyst. And if you think this sounds like what
happened to Reggie Jackson in “The Naked Gun,” you’re not far off.

Before we get to analyzing a fantasy player’s worth, I
recommend you make a determination about your goals in playing fantasy. Namely, are you playing to win or are you
playing to have fun? Granted, winning is
fun, but it may come at a price. In
order to really excel at the game, you have to avoid all emotional attachments
to individual players. Your feelings
will color your decisions and may prevent you from making a move to optimize
your team. Any one such move can cost
you a title.

On the other hand, playing the fantasy version causes you to
watch a lot more real baseball and it’s no fun always watching dudes you don’t
like. So another way to approach the
game is to draft some players from your favorite team and other guys you like
to see play. You probably won’t win this
way, but you’ll enjoy the season a lot more.
It should be noted that it is possible to still win doing this, but only
if you draft each player at or near his ADP (average draft position – it explains all the fantasy terminology you’ll need to
know).

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Basically, you have to decide if you are going to be
original Robocop or end of the movie “Robocop.”
Original Robocop had zero emotions, he just scanned a situation and made
the optimal move at all times. But once
he rediscovered who he was, emotions started to cloud his judgment, causing him
to go a bit haywire, but ultimately allowed him to find satisfaction. So which Robocop will you be?

Either way, you’ll need to be able to make some decisions
regarding your players’ fantasy values.
Here are a few hints for beginners below.

Continue reading →

April 7, 2009

Marry, Bury, Date – Week 1

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It’s fitting that in my first attempt to give expert advice,
I turn to a childhood game for inspiration.
And not just any childhood game.
Marry, Bury, Date is a staple of slumber parties and has resulted in
more giggling and bright red faces than a Lou Piniella tirade. Since I’m sure my suggestions will be met
with both disparaging laughter and angry responses, the game seems apropos.

The premise of the game is simple. Three names are thrown out and the
participants must pick which one they would Marry (ie commit to long-term),
Bury (get rid of forever), or Date (could be fun in the short-term). When considering trade offers or waiver wire
pick-ups, fantasy players are faced with these same three decisions all the
time, so in an effort to help aid these choices, I’ll name one player who I
like for the rest of the season, one player who I think could help in the
short-term, and one guy I wouldn’t touch in this space each week.

jr high prom.jpg

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After I’m done, if you want to whisper to the player that I
“like ’em, like ’em” that’s up to you.
If you do, I look forward to the awkwardness that ensues all the way
through the Junior High Prom. Maybe I’ll
get my courage up and ask them to dance during “Endless Love.”

This week’s picks are below.

Continue reading →

April 6, 2009

Opening Night Live

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Finally. Just like
when “Frank TV” was canceled (he was so overexposed last year, I actually
started to dislike the people he impersonated by proxy), our long national
nightmare is over and after an off-season that could’ve only been celebrated by
high-priced Manhattan realtors, baseball is back.

We’ve enjoyed all the winter fantasy baseball chatter, but
we couldn’t be happier that spring is here.
Theoretical discussions centered upon hypothetical results can only go
on so long before you want to see things proved (and disproved) on the field.

With Hamels on the shelf, I was thrilled to discover
my old friend Brett Myers would be throwing the first meaningful pitch of the
2009. I would say he single-handedly
murdered my team last year, but that would be unfair to Aaron Harang, who
caused me to utter enough swear words last year, my living room could have been
mistaken for the set of a Tarantino flick.

chester cheetah.JPG

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But did I learn my lesson? Of course not. I doggedly pursued both Myers and Harang to
join my staff in the Fantasy Baseball Search Expert League and either they come
through this year or they will become an even bigger fixture in my nightmares
than the new Chester Cheetah (seriously dude, that thing is creepy. How did that pitch go? “I like our cartoon pitchman for our chemically-processed
cheese sticks, but it would be better if he was 30% more sociopathic. Can we take the old one and add a dusting of Hannibal
Lecter?”)

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With Myers taking the ball on Opening Night, I couldn’t help
but keep a running review of his performance.
If you saw the game, you can probably predict what follows below is not
for the faint of heart.

Continue reading →